The forecast temperatures for Thursday as we head into a hot weekend across much of the country. Picture: Sky News Weather.
The forecast temperatures for Thursday as we head into a hot weekend across much of the country. Picture: Sky News Weather.

Winter set to switch to summer

HAPPY Christmas in July! Although you wouldn't know it by the temperature which has turned into Christmas in December.

The weekend in Sydney the temperature is forecast to be so high that it will hit the average for a December day, not a day in deepest darkest midwinter.

Across the country the mercury is set to soar to Spring time and even summer time heights. Brisbane and Adelaide will have temperatures more akin to October than July.

While it will make a welcome midwinter change from the freezing conditions we've seen over the last couple of weeks, weather boffins have warned that - whether hot or cold - this season is turning into one of the most parched on record.

Both Melbourne and Canberra have had their driest start to winter for 38 years with just 40mm and 12mm of rain respectively.

"At first glance, it's quite surprising this winter has been so dry considering the usual suspects of El Nino or the Indian Ocean Dipole [climate drivers] are not present," Tom Saunders, Sky News Weather meteorologist told news.com.au.

"Rather than the global drivers of weather variability, it has been local conditions which have caused the dry winter."

Chief among those conditions is a high pressure system that has lingered for months over the eastern part of the country. Bringing clear skies, it has banished most of the rain clouds away.

Christmas in July celebrations are cranking up, such as here at Melbourne’s Luna Park. But the weather isn’t playing ball. Picture: Hamish BlairSource:News Corp Australia
Christmas in July celebrations are cranking up, such as here at Melbourne’s Luna Park. But the weather isn’t playing ball. Picture: Hamish BlairSource:News Corp Australia

 

It's also meant the snow has been late in coming to the ski resorts, although the last week has seen some good dumpings.

And while the lack of cloud cover has led to some bitterly cold nights, it has led to above average temperatures during the day.

"This week will be unseasonably warm over eastern Australia," said Mr Saunders.

"Brisbane will hit 24-26C every day which is more like a mid-spring week. Sydney will average 22C this week, again more like a mid-spring week.

"On Saturday, Sydney is forecast to get to 25C and that's the temperature average in December."

The average daily high in Sydney for July is a mere 16.4C.

Indeed, if the temperature at the Bureau of Meteorology's Sydney Observatory Hill monitoring station creeps just 0.7C higher than forecast on Saturday, the city's CBD will see its warmest July day for 27 years. Sydney Airport, just down the road from the harbour, hit 27C last Saturday 2017.

 

Melbourne's forecast high of 19C on Saturday will mean the city will breeze through its warmest July day for three years. Katoomba, in Sydney's Blue Mountains - a favourite Christmas in July destination - will top out at a less than wintry 18C on Friday.

Broken Hill's 27C would see the NSW outback city surpass a July record set in 1927.

If Mildura, in Victoria's north west, lands on 28C - as is forecast - it will be its second hottest ever July day only surpassed by a high of 29.4C in 1892. That's not a typo - that actually is one down from a hot summer-like day before Federation.

The forecast heat comes as climate scientists have said our future could be full of far more drought inducing El Ninos.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate cycle operating in the Pacific.

A negative ENSO phase, commonly known as an El Nino, sends hotter weather to Australia and can lead to less rain, sustained droughts and weather extremes.

International scientists have released new modelling that projects that even if warming is limited to 1.5C - something scientists have previously warned is unlikely if not impossible - Australia will face more frequent El Ninos.

The risk of extreme El Nino events will rise from the current five events per century, to 10 per century by 2050 under a scenario that presumes warming peaks at 1.5C then, reports AAP.

But the risk keeps rising for a further 100 years - to about 14 events per century by 2150, the scientists warn in the journal Nature Climate Change.

WHAT MONTH WILL IT FEEL LIKE IN YOUR CAPITAL?

Sydney - July average maximum temperature 16.4C

This week's high will be more like December

Between 18C-22C for the rest of the week, peaking at a whopping 25C on Saturday. Mostly sunny with possible showers on the weekend.

Melbourne - July average maximum temperature 13.5C

This week's high will be more like October.

Between 15-17C until Friday and then a high of 19C on Saturday. Showers possible all week.

Brisbane - July average maximum temperature 20.4C

This week's high will be more like early October.

A untroubled week of sunshine with daily maximums between 24-26C.

Perth - July average maximum temperature 18.4C

This week's high will be more like late September.

20C max for Monday and Tuesday rising to 21C on Thursday before dropping back to between 17-18C through the weekend. Sunshine and showers which could be heavy towards the end of the week with possible thunderstorms.

Adelaide - July average maximum temperature 15.3C

This week's high will be more like early October.

Bobbing around 19C for the rest of the week heading up to 21C on Saturday. Possible showers between the sunshine.

Canberra - July average maximum temperature 11.5C

This week's high will be more like September.

Between 13C and 15C for the week and then 17C on Saturday. Still cold overnight though, dropping to -4C early on Saturday. Possibly shower here and there.

Hobart - July average maximum temperature 10.5C

This week's high will be more like September.

Monday will see a max of 14C and then drop to a below average 10C on Tuesday. Shrugging off the cold, the week's highs will then climb to 15C on Saturday. Partly cloudy with some showers.

Darwin - July average maximum temperature 30.6C

This week's high will be more like September.

33C and sunny all week for the top of the Territory.

News Corp Australia


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