Weather system weakens, but rain isn't over yet
WEDNESDAY 2.48pm: THE low pressure trough off the far north coast of New South Wales has weakened, but the rain isn't over yet.
Meteorologist from the Bureau of Meteorology, Steph Spackman said showers are expected to persist with moderate falls for the remainder of the week.
"We may see some short sharp localised falls in the Northern Rivers, however they will move along quite quickly," Ms Spackman said.
A south to southeast flow over the northern half of the coast will gradually weaken today under the influence of a large ridge of high pressure, but it remains slow-moving.
There is a strong wind warning today for the Byron Coast and chance of thunderstorms today and Thursday.
There is no longer a flood threat from this weather system and BoM flood watches have been cancelled.
Friday has an 80% chance of rain but Ms Spackman said "showers will start to ease as we move further into the weekend," with a medium chance of rain over the two days with cloudy conditions and light winds.
Possible rainfall for Byron and Lismore is predicted as 0-6mm for Saturday and 0-2mm for Sunday.
Ms Spackman said most of the rain was received over the weekend.
Recorded rainfall measurements over the past seven days up until 9am this morning are as follows:
Lismore - 261.4mm
Byron Bay- 246.4mm (recorded on Jacaranda Drive)
Ballina - 256.6mm
Over the last 24 hours rainfall levels at Byron were 5mm, Lismore 18mm, Ballina 5.4mm, and 4.4mm at Casino.
Kyogle has received 6.6mm of rainfall in last 24 hours up until 9am this Wednesday morning.
TUESDAY 4.30pm: SEVERE weather warnings for heavy rainfall have been cancelled for the Northern Rivers.
BoM Meteorologist, Jordan Notara said the small scale low pressure system within a trough off the northern NSW coast has shifted northwards and rainfall rates in the area were easing.
"We still have some watch and minor flood warnings for some areas, including Brunswick and Richmond Wilsons Rivers," Mr Notara said.
The Wilsons River at Lismore is likely to reach around 5.80 metres AHD early Wednesday morning, with minor flooding.
Minor flooding is expected along the Richmond River at Coraki - which is likely to reach 4.0m Wednesday afternoon- and Bungawalbyn, which is likely to reach 3.60m.
Four day totals until 9am this morning saw Lismore cop 322mm of rainfall and Mullumbimby had 264mm, and were included as areas with some of the higher levels of rainfall.
Tomorrow rain will continue to ease as the morning passes on, and in the coming days rain will reduce to lighter showers Mr Notara said.
TUESDAY 10am: RAINFALL totals may ease tonight as the low pressure system starts to move offshore.
Heavy rainfall is expected to ease or move to the far north-east of the state, BoM Meteorologist Jordan Notara said.
"The expectation is for the stronger 100mm rainfalls that we've seen over the past few days to be on the decrease," Mr Notara said.
"The earlier parts of Wednesday morning may see continued heavy showers, but they are expected to ease as the system moves away."
The Northern Rivers has received totals of 100mm over the past 24 hours up until 9am this morning.
Minor flood warnings for the Richmond River and Brunswick River are in place, with flood watches from the BoM for the rivers from minor to moderate flood warnings.
Mr Notara said certain parts of the district have seen more than 250mm of rainfall in certain areas in the past 72 hours up until 4am this morning, with a potential 300mm up until now.
He also said there is a potential for localised flash flooding if thunderstorms occur.
A gale wind warning on the waters cancels out any planned water activities.
TUESDAY 9.15am: A SEVERE weather warning is still in place for the Northern Rivers as heavy rainfall continues.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding are forecast to affect the Northern Rivers and northern parts of the Mid North Coast today and early Wednesday.
The Bureau of Meteorology have issued gale warnings for the Byron Coast today and Wednesday.
A low pressure system has developed within a trough off the far southern QLD and northern NSW coasts, generating the persistent and sometimes heavy showers.
Rainfall totals in excess of 200mm have fallen in the last 72 hours to 4am today over these districts.
Up to 100-150mm further may fall in parts of the Northern Rivers district over the next two days.
Locations in the Northern Rivers which may be affected include Lismore, Byron Bay, Ballina, Casino and Kyogle.
Over the last 72 hours to 4am Tuesday morning Mullumbimby has recorded about 291mm, Terania Creek 263mm and Goonengerry about 252mm of rain.
MONDAY 4.17pm: THE low coming through the area will deepen over the next 24 hours, but will start to decay Wednesday afternoon.
Over the next few days rainfall will be moderate, but at times localised rainfall will be heavy which may bring isolated thunderstorms.
Affected areas tomorrow morning from North of Coffs Harbour to the Queensland border won't reduce with 100% chance of rainfall.
MONDAY 11.55am: A GALE warning has been issued for Byron coast on Tuesday June 13.
BoM predict winds on Tuesday will be south-easterly 20 to 30 knots, and will reach up to 35 knots offshore north of Cape Byron in the evening.
There is a strong wind warning for today with easterly to south-easterly winds from 15 to 25 knots increasing 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
A low pressure system off the far southern Queensland coast is bringing widespread showers with local heavy falls to parts of the northern New South Wales coast.
The low is expected to deepen during today and Tuesday, and then weaken later Wednesday.
This weather system has the potential to cause river flooding as well as local flash flooding (minor to moderate) in the Tweed river valley and Coffs Coast from this afternoon onwards.
MONDAY 10.53am: THE Bureau of Meteororoligy (BoM) have issued a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall in the Northern Rivers.
Particularly heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days and BoM Meteorologist Jordan Notara said there is potential for flash flooding.
Minor flood warnings have been issued for the Brunswick River Valley, and the Richmond and Wilson Rivers.
"A low pressure trough lies off the New South Wales north coast and is directing south to southeasterly winds over the waters, which is expected to persist and be very slow moving over the next several days," Mr Notara said.
The trough is expected to deepen a little today and tomorrow (Tuesday), forming a low, and bringing stronger winds to the far northern waters.
Up to 200 mm further may fall in parts of the Northern Rivers district over the next two days but some catchments may receive higher.
Forecast for Monday - midnight:
- Weather will be cloudy with a 100% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.
- Easterly winds 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots north of Yamba during the afternoon and evening, which will turn south-easterly in the late afternoon.
Tuesday June 13:
- There is a strong wind warning for Byron Coast with continued cloudy skies and 100% chance of showers, heavy at times and a chance of a thunderstorm.
- Possible rainfall predicted as 70 to 120 mm in Byron Bay and 45 to 90 mm predicted for Lismore.
Wednesday June 14:
- Winds will be easing on Wednesday but there is still a high chance of a thunderstorm and 95% chance of showers.
- Possible rainfall predicted as 15 to 40 mm.
Thursday June 15:
- 95% chance of showers and a chance of a thunderstorm with light winds.
- 8 to 20 mm expected for Lismore and 10 to 30 mm for Byron.
Friday June 16:
- Partly cloudy with 80% chance of showers and light winds with 4 to 10 mm of rain expected.
The maximum rainfall in the region -also the maximum for the state -was in Tuckombil which has received 156 ml until 9am this morning.
This was closely followed by the Houghlahans creek which received 135 ml, and BoM have also issued warmings for these areas.
Information from the North Coast Storm Chasers states after 282mm of rainfall has fallen in the past 48 hours over the Richmond and Wilsons River Valley a Minor Flood warning sees:
- Wilsons river at Lismore: Likely to reach 5.5 meters on Monday morning with minor flooding, river currently steadily rising.
- Richmond River at Coraki: Likely to exceed 3.4 meters early Monday morning then rise further to 3.9 meters late afternoon with minor flooding.
- Richmond river at Bungawalbyn: Likely to exceed three meters early Monday morning then rise further to 3.3 meters late Monday afternoon with minor flooding.
Maximum temperatures are expected to sit around the low 20s for the week.
BoM forecasts suggest the Northern Rivers won't see any sun until Saturday, when rain is expected to stop.