Tropical cyclone unlikely to impact Sunshine Coast
A POTENTIALLY severe tropical cyclone expected to cross the North Queensland coast sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday is unlikely to have any impact on the Sunshine Coast.
The tropical low in the north Coral Sea is expected to become a Category Three severe cyclone with hurricane force winds between 119-157kmh.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Lauren Pattie said a lot of variability still existed but the system was expected to cross the North Queensland coast between Bowen and Cooktown with somewhere between Townsville and Cairns the most likely landfall although it could shift north or south of there.
A low chance still remains that what is currently a low pressure system will reach cyclone status today with that increasing to moderate on Saturday.
Ms Pattie described cyclones as being like Goldilocks requiring a range of elements to be "just right" with small changes contributing to big differences in terms of outcomes.
A series of Track Watches to be released later today will give a firming indication of the BOM's expectation of how the system will perform.
Ms Pattie said its ultimate strength would be dependent on the time it spent over water. If it moves quickly to cross land it will be weaker in wind and rain generated than if it meanders around for a few days.
She said models were aligning that land fall would be between Sunday evening and Tuesday and "most likely" Monday which would indicate a cyclone of Category Three status on stronger in the one to five scale.
Computer models are also aligning on their forecasts the system would continue to move west after crossing land delivering moderate to heavy falls to the central interior from Tuesday onwards.
Ms Pattie said the system would have minimal impact on the Sunshine Coast where rainfall will continue to decrease into the weekend.
There will be showers but not as many or of the intensity of the past week.
Monday, when cyclonic activity is expected to have its greatest impact on North Queensland, the Sunshine Coast has only a 30-50% chance of falls to 2mm.
Today will reach a maximum of 29 degrees with a 70% chance of falls between 2-6mm. Winds will be light throughout the day, a trend that will continue across the weekend.
Saturday's temperatures will range from 22-29 degrees with 60% chance of falls from 1-6mm with showers falling in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunday will hit a maximum of 30 degrees off an overnight low of 21 degrees with just a 40% chance of falls to a millimetre.
A partly cloudy Monday will see a 50% chance of falls to 2mm with showers in the morning and afternoon and winds that will be light early, developing to 15-20kmh from the south easy.