Rain, rain go away

rain comes down in Coffs Harbour CBD

HOW much more rain can Coffs Harbour take?

The fact that Coffs Harbour has received 571.4mm of rain in a 30 day period doesn't mean that the big wet that the region has endured for the past month is the last of the rain.

In fact the big wet is forecast to continue into autumn, thanks to a new pattern of abnormal sea surface temperatures and a record warm Indian Ocean according to Tom Saunders, a senior meteorologist at the Weather Channel.

"Consecutive La Niña's have resulted in Australia's wettest two year period on record and the heavy rains should continue through autumn 2012," Mr Saunders said.

"So far this year widespread flooding has already crippled southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.

"As the current La Niña weakens it was initially expected our rainfall patterns would return to normal by the middle of autumn.

"However, a new pattern of abnormal sea surface temperatures has developed to our west with a record warm Indian Ocean. This indicates that southern Australia will face a wet autumn.

"The warm waters will increase evaporation and the transportation of moisture into the atmosphere. The moisture will then be blown over southern Australia by westerly winds and cause an increase in both cloud and rainfall."

The fact that the event is happening right over the other side of this massive country doesn't preclude the Coffs Coast and surrounding districts from feeling the effects of the abnormal weather pattern.

"The states most likely to be affected will be South Australia and New South Wales," the meteorologist said.

"Northern parts of Australia can also expect above average rain this autumn as the weakening La Niña continues to dominate our weather over the last months of the tropical wet season.

"With no reliable method of predicting when the Indian Ocean will cool down it is too early to make a call on winter rainfall for the nation."